Impact assessment for the introduction of salt and drought tolerant forages in Mafraq, Jordan

• Examines whether farmers have adopted the salt and drought tolerant forages introduced by ICBA. 
• Examines the level of adoption of the introduced crop varieties (measured in terms of area under these crops out of total land area of the farm household), i.e. triticale and barley.
• Identify if there is an increase in forages production in the project areas (Mafraq, Jordan) compared to control areas.
• Examine if the introduced forages variety contributed to diversifying the local forages production in the study areas.
• Assess whether the local production of livestock feed has increased. 
• Examine if there is any change in the irrigation water management for forage production.
• Assess the impact of salt and drought tolerant varieties introduced by ICBA on farmers income and livelihood diversification, primarily on crop-livelihood based farming systems. 

Methodology

Primary data collection: In order to assess the impact of the introduction of salt and drought tolerant forages, the consultant will conduct a survey of at least 300 farm households. The sample households will be collected randomly from both project sites (Mafraq region) and control sites (nearby villages with no project implementation but have similar agricultural practices). The control sites will be finalized in collaboration with the National Agricultural Research Center (NARC) at Mafraq, Jordan. Data collection also focuses on the impact of triticale and barely seeds as these were distributed to farmers since 2012 by the NARC.  A questionnaire will be prepared with all the required variables including inputs, outputs, farming practices, market, general land characteristics, and socio-economic characteristics. The questionnaire will be pretested in both project and control areas. 

For qualitative data collection on the prospects and barriers of the salt and drought tolerant forages, focus group discussions (FGD) and the key informants survey will be carried out. For this, checklists will be developed. FGDs will also focus on the role of gender in these technology adoption and dissemination, and also examine impacts of such technologies on gender relations in agriculture looking at their participation in input use, output use, market participation and decision making. Overall, it will help ICBA to know the impacts on rural livelihoods. In addition, the consultant will carry out the key informants’ survey to know the possibilities, limitations, and barriers to upscale the varieties introduced by ICBA. 

Secondary data: Data about the study areas such as agricultural systems, land use, irrigation facilities and also agricultural policies that are relevant to the study will be gathered by reviewing secondary sources.   

Data analysis: All the data collected will be managed in Stata. The consultant should provide the data in Stata format and also the key descriptive analysis. Several statistical methods, including parametric (dummy regression, stochastic dominance analysis, Endogenous switching treatment effect regression, and propensity score matching), non-parametric and semi-parametric methods, will be applied to arrive at the unbiased estimates of the impact by ICBA economist in collaboration with the consultant. 

The qualitative analysis will be shown with the FGD excerpts, by using content analysis for this and scoring index methods where appropriate.  

Detailed Deliverables and Outputs 

1. Inception report: Mobilization and start up; Initial strategy meetings; Community entry; Desk study of existing relevant documents and gathering general information about the study areas.
2. Preparation and finalization of data collection instruments: Development of field data collection instruments (household survey questionnaire, key informant interview checklists, and focus groups discussion check lists); Pretesting of household data collection instruments on ODK Collect; Updating field data collection instruments; Training of field facilitators and enumerators. 
3. Data Collection: Household data collection; Data cleaning and management in Stata. Progress report on data management; First results (no interpretation, no discussion).
4. Draft Reporting: Report Writing for both quantitative and qualitative information collected using the instruments developed for the study; Updating draft report. 
5. Final report: the final report will be submitted.